NPL Playoff Race: 10 Matches Left, No Team Safe Yet

Ten matches stand between the Nepal Premier League and its playoffs, and after 18 games of Season 3 not one of the eight teams has booked a place in the top four — and not one has been ruled out either. Lumbini Lions sit top with seven points, Kathmandu Gorkhas and Sudurpaschim Royals are locked on six behind them, and Pokhara Avengers, still without a point after four defeats, are somehow still alive. The league stage resumes on Monday, 9 November after a rest day for Laxmi Puja, and by the time the final league match is played on Sunday, 15 November, every one of those ten games will have moved the table.

The table after Match 18

The shape of the race changed on Saturday evening, when Kathmandu ended Lumbini's unbeaten run with a 36-run win in Match 18 at the TU International Cricket Ground in Kirtipur. Kathmandu posted 160 for 8 and bowled Lumbini out for 124, a result that handed the defending champions their first defeat of the season and lifted Kathmandu to second place on net run rate. It also kept the table bunched: three points separate first from seventh, and the four teams on four points all have at least two games left to play.

After Match 18 the table reads: Lumbini 7 points from five matches, Kathmandu 6 from four, Sudurpaschim 6 from five, Chitwan 5 from four, Janakpur, Karnali and Biratnagar all on 4, and Pokhara on 0. Lumbini's net run rate of +1.501 keeps them top, ahead of Kathmandu on +1.313, while Sudurpaschim's −0.275 leaves them third despite having the same points as Kathmandu. Chitwan's +0.207 is the best of the chasing group, and Pokhara's −1.679 is the worst in the league by some distance — a number that could matter if the race comes down to run rate.

Lumbini Lions: top, but not safe

Lumbini have two matches left, against Karnali Yaks on Thursday, 12 November and Biratnagar Kings on Saturday, 14 November. Win both and they finish on 11 points, which would almost certainly keep them top. Win one and they reach nine, a total that should be enough given how the fixtures fall, with their strong net run rate doing the rest of the work. Lose both and they stay on seven, and would need results elsewhere to go their way — a position no table-topper wants with a week to go. The champions' task is simple to state and hard to execute: beat two sides who are both fighting for their own playoff lives.

Kathmandu Gorkhas: three wins from the top

No team has more to gain from the final week than Kathmandu. The Gorkhas have three matches left — Chitwan Rhinos on Monday evening, Sudurpaschim Royals on Friday, and Pokhara Avengers in the final league match of the season on Sunday, 15 November. Win all three and Kathmandu finish on 12 points, the highest total any team can reach, and would almost certainly finish first. Win two and they reach 10, which should be enough. Even one win, taking them to eight, would keep them in the conversation, because their net run rate of +1.313 is the second best in the league and would win most ties. The fixture list has also been kind: their final two opponents are the teams placed third and eighth.

Sudurpaschim and Chitwan: the middle of the race

Sudurpaschim Royals, the side that dominated the league stage in the first two seasons, have two matches left: Janakpur Bolts on Tuesday, 10 November and Kathmandu on Friday, 13 November. Two wins take them to 10 points; one win takes them to eight, a total that might not be enough if the chasing pack wins its games in hand. Their net run rate of −0.275 is the weakest of the current top four, which means they cannot afford to lean on run rate to save them.

Chitwan Rhinos sit fourth on five points with three matches left — the joint-most remaining games of any side. They face Kathmandu on Monday, Janakpur on Friday and Karnali in the last round of league matches on Sunday, 15 November. Three wins would take them to 11 points and possibly the top of the table; two wins would take them to nine and, with their healthy net run rate of +0.207, would leave them well placed. Chitwan are the only side in the top four with a game in hand over both Lumbini and Sudurpaschim, and that extra match is their edge.

The chasing pack: four points, everything to play for

Three teams sit on four points, and each of them can still reach the playoffs. Janakpur Bolts have two matches left, against Sudurpaschim on Tuesday and Chitwan on Friday. Win both and they finish on eight points, though with a net run rate of −0.083 they would likely need other results to fall their way. Karnali Yaks have the most games left of anyone on four points — three, against Pokhara on Monday, Lumbini on Thursday and Chitwan on Sunday. Win all three and Karnali reach 10 points; win two and they reach eight with a run rate that is currently −0.268. Biratnagar Kings also have two matches left, against Pokhara on Thursday and Lumbini on Saturday, and the maths is the same as Janakpur's: two wins, eight points, and a nervous wait on net run rate — theirs is −0.820, the second worst in the league.

Pokhara Avengers: win everything, then hope

Pokhara's position is the starkest in the league. Four defeats from four matches, no points, and a net run rate of −1.679. They have three matches left, against Karnali on Monday, Biratnagar on Thursday and Kathmandu on Sunday. Win all three and they finish on six points — but six points alone will not be enough, because four teams already have more than that. Pokhara also need results elsewhere to go their way, and need their net run rate to improve sharply. Lose one more match and they are out: four teams already sit on five points or more, so the top four will be decided above the total Pokhara could then reach. The Avengers' season has been defined by close defeats and a captaincy change that has not yet changed results, and now only a perfect week can save it.

The week ahead

The league resumes on Monday, 9 November with a double header: Pokhara against Karnali at 12:30 PM NST, then Chitwan against Kathmandu at 4:30 PM NST. Tuesday brings Janakpur against Sudurpaschim at 4:30 PM NST, and Wednesday is a rest day for Bhai Tika. Thursday has Biratnagar against Pokhara at 12:30 PM NST and Karnali against Lumbini at 4:30 PM NST. Friday pairs Kathmandu with Sudurpaschim at 12:30 PM NST and Chitwan with Janakpur at 4:30 PM NST. Saturday's only match is Biratnagar against Lumbini at 4:30 PM NST, and the league stage closes on Sunday, 15 November with Chitwan against Karnali at 12:30 PM NST and Kathmandu against Pokhara at 4:30 PM NST. All matches are at the TU International Cricket Ground in Kirtipur.

The playoffs begin two days later: Qualifier 1 on Tuesday, 17 November, the Eliminator on Wednesday, 18 November, Qualifier 2 on Thursday, 19 November, and the final on Saturday, 21 November. The first two teams on the table meet in Qualifier 1 for a direct place in the final; the loser gets a second chance in Qualifier 2 against the winner of the Eliminator between the third and fourth teams.

What will decide it

If teams finish level on points, the table is decided first by the number of wins, then by net run rate, then by the head-to-head result, and finally by the fair-play record. That order matters this season because so many teams are bunched together: with three teams on four points and two more on six, net run rate could easily be the difference between a playoff place and an early flight home. It is why the margins matter as much as the results — a heavy win this week is worth more than a narrow one, and a heavy defeat can be as damaging as a loss itself. Ten matches, eight teams, four places: the business end of NPL Season 3 starts on Monday.